I’m starting to wonder if IPv4 exhaustion has opened a wormhole plunging us all back to 2008 again.
Australian researchers have begun collating information from networks across the world in an attempt to figure out how many usable blocks of Internet Protocol version 4 (IPv4) addresses remain unused.
This would have been a good wake-up call project in 2008.
The study had already verified a couple of hundred million IP addresses that were currently not used – but could be reallocated…
They appear not to have considered burn rate. Around April 2010, APNIC had 13 /8 IPv4 blocks left – about 218 million addresses – and one year later they were gone. That’s just in the Asia-Pacific region. Worldwide, a ‘couple of hundred million IP addresses’ would have negligible impact on IPv4 depletion. (If they were even recoverable, given corporate self-interest.)
…incumbent ISPs with plenty of IPv4 addresses had market power because of the overall scarcity of addresses and therefore little incentive to lead the migration to IPv6.
Any incumbent trying to blackmail their customers into paying more because IPv4 is so ‘scarce’ will probably see those customers exit, stage right, for real ISPs who know what they’re doing, like the market-dominant gorillas AT&T, Verizon Wireless and Comcast.
Very little content is available on IPv6 and very few users [can access it] so if you just gave content providers an IPv6 address without having IPv4, they’re not going to have much custom…
Yes, that was the situation in, oh, 2008. Today Google alone takes the IPv6 content available on the Internet to around 50%. Facebook 46%, YouTube 33%: even with overlap that’s probably 80% of the most sought-after content on the planet, and it’s there on IPv6. (And red-herring alert: no-one currently advises giving out IPv6 addresses only. Dual-stacking is the new black.)
My apologies to the researchers if they’ve been horribly misquoted. But if they haven’t, I’m reminded of prospectors panning old mine tailings, desperately seeking grains of gold. And right beside them, gleaming benignly in the sunlight, is an Everest of precious ore just there for the taking.